US should not encourage Taiwan to court destruction
- The
vibrant democracy in Taiwan is a global success story, but thumbing its
nose at China and hoping the US will deal with the consequences is not
the way to go
- However,
the US Congress lacks the courage to tell Taiwan to avoid pushing red
lines, even when this is of critical importance to preserving democracy
on the island
As the democracies of the world assemble to celebrate their forms of governance, they would be wise to reflect on some of the deficiencies of democracy along with its successes.
Properly functioning democracy is the only truly modern form of governance. The just powers of governance, in other words the legitimacy of democratic systems, rest on elections that reflect the will of the people, and such systems rely on checks and balances to prevent the concentration of power that leads to tyranny.
These core features permit enormous diversity in the particular forms of democracy, with each form taking on national characteristics. However, democracies contain the seeds of their own destruction. They are dependent on the middle classes for their vitality, they cannot function without compromise, they are vulnerable to popular passions and demagogues, and they are capable of precipitating wars.
Democracies cannot function in polarised societies. We have experienced this once before. The result was a bloody civil war. Because of these deficiencies, democracies have a significant mortality rate.
The democracies that emerged in Europe after World War I could not manage the contradictions between nationalism and self-determination created by the checkerboard distribution of minority ethnic groups in central Europe. They were replaced by authoritarian alternatives.
The weaknesses of European democracies in addressing the rising threat of conflict permitted Hitler to run roughshod over the continent. The United States, equally unprepared, was only saved by its ocean moats.
These were insufficient to prevent the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour. The utility of moats has been vitiated by the development of intercontinental missiles with nuclear warheads.
The United States, which used to be seen by many as the shining city on the hill, now has a dysfunctional Congress, riddled with members who put party interest ahead of national interest, refer to their opponents as “the enemy”, and promulgate the goal of disrupting the ruling party’s ability to address national and global problems.
The vibrant democracy in Taiwan is a global success story. But it is emulating the demonstrators in Hong Kong by thumbing its nose at Beijing and hoping the United States will deal with the potential consequences.
Its geographic proximity to the China mainland makes this a risky proposition. No matter how the United States responds in a conflict scenario, it cannot protect Taiwan from the destructive potential of conventional missiles.
As in the case of the Hong Kong demonstrators, Congress is falling over itself to show support for Taiwan’s defiance of the mainland, often in ways that make conflict more likely, or even inevitable.
The issue is not whether democracy in Taiwan is admirable. It is. What is not admirable is to encourage a democracy to court its own destruction, or for a self-governing island to precipitate a conflict between China and the United States over its status in the world.
Congress seems only to understand the language of sanctions and pressure as deterrents, when defusing the situation is the necessity. It lacks the courage to tell Taiwan to avoid pushing red lines, even when this is of critical importance to preserving democracy on Taiwan.
Public sentiment on Taiwan overwhelmingly supports a status quo that avoids conflict and permits productive cross-strait relations. That status quo used to exist. It does no longer.
Both Congress and the Biden administration need to work together with Taiwan to restore such a status quo. Beijing needs to respond by stopping military pressure on Taiwan. It would be tragic if a democratic Taiwan precipitates a self-destructive conflict.
J. Stapleton Roy is a former US ambassador to China. He is the founding director emeritus and a distinguished scholar at the Wilson Center’s Kissinger Institute on China and the United States. Holding the rank of Career Ambassador, he has served as the top US envoy to Singapore, China and Indonesia
Ambassador J. Stapleton Roy is the founding director emeritus and a distinguished scholar at the Wilson Center’s Kissinger Institute on China and the United States. From watching the Chinese civil war from the roof of his school, to participating in the secret negotiations to establish US-China diplomatic relations, to serving as assistant secretary of state for intelligence and research, Roy has lived through, navigated, and studied the development of China and modern Asia for more than 70 years. Holding the rank of Career Ambassador, he has served as the top US envoy to Singapore, China, and Indonesia. A fluent Mandarin-speaker, Roy is widely quoted on political developments in China and East Asia.